Picking A Super Bowl Winner: If It Works, Don’t Fix It
Send to KindleThe Baltimore Ravens Will Win Super Bowl XLVII Based on a Surprising Predictor That Gets the Job Done
Team whose city boasts lower unemployment rate has won 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls; Baltimore – with 7.2% jobless rate – gets the edge in 2013, according to RiseSmart study.
RiseSmart, the leader in next-generation outplacement solutions, has performed an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing the team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower jobless rate has won 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls – a remarkable 80% success rate.
Based on this correlation, the Ravens will claim the NFL championship over the San
The unemployment-rate predictor has been correct in 4 out of every 5 Super Bowls since 1988, when the Washington Redskins defeated the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXII.
The correlation is based on the jobless rates in the competing cities in the calendar year preceding the big game.
Through November, the 2012 unemployment rate for the Baltimore metropolitan area was 7.2%, compared to 8.2% for the San Francisco metropolitan area.
“The Super Bowl always generates a great deal of discussion among commentators and fans, and this correlation to the economies of the competing cities is sure to spark spirited debate as well,” said Sanjay Sathe, founder and CEO of RiseSmart.
“One could hypothesize that a fan base with higher employment is more likely to attend games, buy team merchandise, and cheer on their team at sports bars and restaurants.
“By contrast, a metro area struggling with high jobless rates might subtly but negatively impact its team’s success.”
Other facts of note:
- Super Bowl XLVII is the 4th consecutive Super Bowl in which both teams hail from a metropolitan area with an unemployment rate over 6%. Before 2010, the last time the two Super Bowl teams both came from cities with jobless rates exceeding 6% was 1994, when Dallas defeated Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII
- The New York Giants’ upset victory over New England in Super Bowl XLVI represents one of the 5 times in 25 years when the unemployment predictor failed to predict the outcome of the game. Two of the other 5 times were also upset wins by the Giants – over favored Buffalo in 1991 and undefeated New England in 2008
“Never underestimate the power of having a job,” Sathe said. “It impacts workers, their families, their cities, and – just maybe – their football teams.”
| Year | Winner | Jobless Rate (%) | Loser | Jobless Rate (%) |
| 1988 | Washington | 3.2 | Denver | 7.2 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 3.6 | Cincinnati | 5.1 |
| 1990 | San Francisco | 3.3 | Denver | 5.4 |
| 1991 | N.Y. Giants | 5.5 | Buffalo | 5.3 |
| 1992 | Washington | 4.6 | Buffalo | 7.2 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 6.9 | Buffalo | 7.5 |
| 1994 | Dallas | 6.1 | Buffalo | 6.8 |
| 1995 | San Francisco | 5.9 | San Diego | 7.1 |
| 1996 | Dallas | 4.8 | Pittsburgh | 6 |
| 1997 | Green Bay | 3.4 | New England | 4.1 |
| 1998 | Denver | 2.9 | Green Bay | 3.3 |
| 1999 | Denver | 2.9 | Atlanta | 3.3 |
| 2000 | St. Louis | 3.5 | Tennessee | 2.9 |
| 2001 | Baltimore | 3.8 | NY Giants | 4.4 |
| 2002 | New England | 3.6 | St. Louis | 4.6 |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | 5.6 | Oakland | 6.2 |
| 2004 | New England | 5.7 | Carolina | 6.3 |
| 2005 | New England | 5 | Philadelphia | 5.1 |
| 2006 | Pittsburgh | 5.2 | Seattle | 5 |
| 2007 | Indianapolis | 4.4 | Chicago | 4.5 |
| 2008 | NY Giants | 4.4 | New England | 4.1 |
| 2009 | Pittsburgh | 5.1 | Arizona | 5.3 |
| 2010 | New Orleans | 6.5 | Indianapolis | 8.7 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 7.7 | Pittsburgh | 8 |
| 2012 | N.Y. Giants | 8.5 | New England | 6.6 |
Note: Jobless rates are for year prior to Super Bowl year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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About RiseSmart
RiseSmart is the leading provider of next-generation outplacement solutions. The company leverages a cloud-based technology platform, proven methodologies, and one-on-one support to help employers with their workforce strategies, and displaced employees with their career strategies. RiseSmart drives significant ROI to organizations by offering affordable pricing while reducing unemployment insurance taxes and severance costs. RiseSmart has received a wide range of awards and recognition from organizations including the Golden Bridge Awards, the Momentum Index, Red Herring, the San Francisco Business Times, SiliconIndia, the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal, the Stevie Awards and TiE. For more information, visit http://www.risesmart.com.
SOURCE RiseSmart
CONTACT : Scott Baradell, +1-972-235-3439, sbaradell@ideagrove.com
Web Site : http://www.risesmart.com
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